Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Sorry Reggie

In case you missed it, Reggie “The King of New York” Miller is not on the list of finalists for the 2011 basketball Hall of Fame. A list that includes a handful of college coaches that no one will lose sleep over and Maurice Cheeks, Mark Jackson, and Jamaal Wilkes. While Reggie is easily a better candidate than most of the eligible candidates, I hardly think that cause for mass rioting or boycotts of any sort. If you want to be outraged, be mad at the fact that Springfield is a place where dozens of amateur level coaches make it in by being long tenured while guys like Jo Jo White and Bernard King twiddle their thumbs on the outside looking in. I’m not going to argue that Reggie was unfairly excluded from the Hall this year. Actually I’m going the other direction and saying that we are a bit too liberal with the title “Hall-of-Famer.”

The naysayer in me is gloating from the rooftops right now. Honestly, what about Reggie Miller’s game screams “legendary”? If not for 2 Knicks series, would we even remember Reggie? He's basically a less talented Mitch Richmond who had some big spots in the playoffs. People who would vote Reggie in are the same people who want “Big Shot Bob” Horry in. This guy benefited from how weak the NBA was in the mid 90s and early 00s, and we’re rewarding him for it? But sometimes you have to be real and think about what a guy like Reggie brings to the table.

I'm plenty old to remember Miller's good years, and never did I think I was watching an amazing artist do his thing on the hardwood. My issue is that is you spend 15 years as your team's go to guy, and your only real contribution is your scoring, I think you should have to be an ELITE scorer to get into the Hall. Reggie peaked at 22.6 points/36 back in 1990 on a team that featured Vern Fleming, Detlef Schrempf, and Chuck Person. This year, 10 NBA players are besting that number. To put it in perspective Dwight Howard, never known as a top-flight scorer, is at 22.4 right now. And, those Pacers scored 112 points per game. They would be first this year by 5 points per game, so there was no shortage of points to be had on that team.

On the flip side, Reggie was a deadly marksman with a career True Shooting percentage of .614. That’s better than Stockton/Nash/Brent Barry levels of elite. When looking at his overall offensive production, only 5 other people can say that they have a career Offensive Win Shares above 120: Michael Jordan, John Stockton, Oscar Robertson, and Jerry West. Pretty good company, if you ask me. So why don’t I remember him taking over games left and right? That’s right, his game consisted mostly of him coming off of screens and nailing jumpers. If his shot wasn’t falling was Reggie contributing? Looking at his full stat line, you see a player with a career Assist rate below 15% who had little to offer in terms of defense or rebounding.

When looking for ways to describe Miller to people who only have stories and folklore to go by, I always find it easiest to compare him to a current era player that can clear things up a bit. While I have heard Miller described as Richard Hamilton with range, but I have found a better comparison: Michael Redd.

Per 36 Minutes

Player

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

REB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

PER

Redd

7.6

16.9

1.9

4.9

4.5

5.4

4.4

2.4

1.1

0.1

1.7

1.8

21.6

19.8

Miller

6.2

13.2

1.9

4.9

4.7

5.3

3.2

3.1

1.1

0.2

1.8

2.1

19.1

18.4

From a pure, numbers standpoint Redd appears to be Reggie’s equal, and even bests him in the ever important PER. What the numbers can’t account for is the fact that Reggie was the best player on numerous playoff teams and a master of the big shot. But for arguments sake, let’s ignore intangibles. Let’s imagine Redd was paired with Rik Smits, Mark Jackson, and the Davis Boys and Reggie were paired with Damon Jones, Dan Gadzuric, Desmond Mason, and Tim Thomas. Would we be making the same claims that Redd would definitely be in the Hall of Fame one day? Redd only making 1 All-Star appearance thus far speaks to how much stronger the league is today than in years past (as well as Redd’s poor health) but I think the takeaway here is that Reggie Miller is a very good player who’s story has grown because of some big spots in big games like the 8 points in 9 seconds game or the game where he dropped 25 points in the 4th quarter. Moments like these help on a guy’s resume. They turn a player like Michael Redd into a legend like Reggie Miller.

I have no doubt in my mind that Reggie Miller will one day make it to Springfield. He’s an Olympic gold medalist, and he is one of the greatest shooters the game has ever seen. But as a shooter with little else to offer, he had the misfortune of being asked to carry a team through the Jordan years and bring a title to Indianapolis. No, I don’t hold it against Reggie that he never won a title, or that he was never one of the 10 best players in the NBA. I actually think that had he been a second option instead of the primary focus in his prime he may even have a ring or two right now and there would be no question about where his career stands. Not every fan favorite can be an easy decision. Sorry Reggie. Better luck next year.